How Taiwan Republic’s national defense became so precarious is a historical, multifaceted phenomenon designed for anyone with an ax to grind to select just one piece to focus on, and ignore all the others. As a historian-scholar, I am trained to discuss and debate forever – but Taiwan and its democratic allies do not have the luxury of doing this because I suspect dictator Xi Jinping is suffering from the same imperialist malady that infected dictator Putin. So whether you are attached to these think tank jargon – porcupine and Javelins – or not, the reality remains – Taiwan and its democratic allies need to bring as many missiles into the theater, as rapidly and affordably as possible. Sending to Taiwan recently retired US Ticonderoga cruisers makes sense.
For decades the game between the US and Taiwan – this is what “strategic ambiguity” really means – is that Taiwan obsessively focuses on one or two major weapon systems partly in a hope that this one system will “solve” its defense like a talisman, but also tea leaf reading for signs that America has finally decided to treat Taiwan as it treats Japan, Korea, Israel – as a democratic ally. So whether it was the F-16 in the 1980s, or Arleigh Burkes in the 1990s, or submarines in like forever, decade after decade, the two sides dance this dance of eternal disappointment.
Debating about porcupine/asymmetrical warfare makes zero sense without this historical-political-diplomatic context. I am not a military expert and will defer to the expertise of military leaders in Taiwan, Japan, and America – but their military analysis is not actionable without taking into account America’s history of ambivalence towards Taiwan. Which makes President Biden’s relative strategic clarity remarkable. Thousands of Javelins and Stingers work very differently with an actively militarily engaged US and Japan – and would be disastrous if Taiwan’s democratic allies fail to show up.
Which gets us to this report on Taiwan requesting the US Navy decommissioned Ticonderoga cruisers. One thing I have noticed about certain policy debating circles is that at some moment of a debate keywords turn into jargon, jargon turn into mantras, and mantras turn into angels on the head of a pin style debates – realists and unrealistic, porcupine or not – detached from the purpose of the debate. Whether Ticonderogas or not, the only thing that matters is that Taiwan Republic, the US, Japan, and democratic allies coordinate a strategic and tactical plan to deter and defeat a Chinese communist invasion to annex Taiwan. Stingers and Javelins and a territorial defense force may play a role. Ticonderogas may, too. The main imperative is to bring as many missiles into the theater for Taiwan and its allies as quickly and cheaply as possible. And perhaps the elderly Ticonderogas are no longer able to serve America’s global maritime empire but with affordable fixes can serve as an instant upgrade to Taiwan’s missile-air defense – basically AEGIS missile barges. It would help Taiwan break the AEGIS/VLS barriers cheaply and quickly. And if strategic clarity is the direction we are headed in, this would be a good opportunity for the Taiwanese, Japanese, and American navies to link their platforms-operations. All of this requires some creativity on the part of Taiwanese and US national security leaders not known for such flexibilities. 22.9.2022
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“An emergency for Taiwan is an emergency for Japan, which is also an emergency for America” – The Lee-Abe-Tsai Indo-Pacific.
Geostrategery and World History classrooms
Five Chinese communist ballistic missiles meant to terrorize democratic citizens of Taiwan Republic landed in the Japanese EEZ, prompting protest and alarm from Japan. These Chinese communist missiles are evidence of Shinzo Abe’s foresight. Former Prime Minister Abe crystallized important ideas ahead of others when months ago he asserted, “An emergency for Taiwan is an emergency for Japan, which is also an emergency for America.”
We should sincerely thank the Chinese communists for doing everything they can to inadverdently 1. Encourage the Japanese to finally write their own constitution, normalize their nation as a regional power, and double the size of their military. 2. Give much military intelligence and data to the US-Taiwan-Japan military alliance. And 3. To ensure that Japanese and American military officers and military assets return to Taiwan Republic sooner than I had guessed. Don’t be surprised if Australian, Canadian, and British military presence, for the first time after the Pacific War, also appears in Taiwan Republic. I expect more high-level visits to Taiwan from global democracies. And the Quad+AUKUS+Japan+NATO will adjust the One China myth sooner rather than later. Just as dictator Putin has singlehanded done more for Ukrainian nationalism than many others, ultranationalist and controversial-divisive dictator Xi wins the Taiwan Independence-Formosan Nationalism Lifetime Achievement Award. 4.8.2022
© Taiwan in World History 台灣與世界歷史. This site grants open access for educational and not-for-profit use. Maps and illustrations are borrowed under educational and not-for-profit fair use. If you are the rights holder and prefer to not have your work shared, please email TaiwanWorldHistory (at) Gmail (dot) com and the content will be removed.
Taiwan in World History (台灣與世界歷史) 