
My impression, anecdotally, is that ever since former Prime Minister Abe sounded the alarm re: the possibility of the Chinese communists launching an invasion to annex Taiwan Republic (An emergency for Taiwan is an emergency for Japan, hence an emergency for America.) – not a month passes without a major civilian or military leader in the US and Japan making unusual comments about Chinese communist military adventurism, and signs of concrete preparation on the US, Japan, and democratic allied side. President Biden’s repeated strategic clarity regarding a Chinese communist military invasion to annex Taiwan, seen in this broader context, suggest that – like the US and UK before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Washington and Tokyo are seeing troubling intelligence regarding Beijing’s intentions. In decades of following this, I have, for example, never heard a senior US military leader speak so concretely of what will occur during a China-Taiwan-Japan-US war. For all of the theorizing and arguments over abstractions like the One China Policy and Strategic Ambiguity – or even what that magical ‘cross-strait’ status quo means – the lesson of Ukraine is that democracies must act earlier and firmer to prevent an invasion from a dictatorship – and that dictators care primarily about the survival of their dictatorship, above anything else. How to communicate clearly to Beijing that the use of force will end the Chinese communist dictatorship, that’s the only policy-making issue that matters. 27.9.2022

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