Taiwanese Navy’s first ‘indigenous’ submarine scheduled for 2024 潛艦國造路迢迢 原型艦2024年下水 Liberty Times: Geostrategery and Taiwan Republic 台灣国 classrooms

由於我國國際處境艱難，除了籌獲機敏裝備時，可能遭中共施壓而告吹，也難以採購國際市場現貨，加上與我國主要軍備供售國的美國，已無傳統動力潛艦，因此我國「潛艦國造」案經歷許多關卡，才逐漸獲得成果。知情人士透露，首艘國造潛艦的壓力殼船段已打造完成，並將裝入各項系統，依照既定節點成軍。根據軍方規畫，首艘國造潛艦將於2024年5月下水，但傳台船有意提前至2023年第3季下水，至於潛艦確切「下水」方式，則尚不得而知。後續艦採購部分，雖一度傳出政府將編列特別預算，支應約8艘後續艦的造艦採購案，但海軍參謀長蔣正國上月於立法院表示，目前尚未定案。

A history of why the Taiwanese Navy, in 2022, is still using two World War Two era GUPPY II conventional submarines would be a fascinating book – covering dictator Chiang Kai-shek’s delusional dreams of recovering his fictional China, to US Cold War policies, to misguided US policies on offensive versus defensive weapons, to the complications of Taiwanese domestic politics during the democracy era, that one of the two major political parties – the China KMT – has a national identity crisis (and hence, blocked the conventional submarine project for a decade.)

For a leaky Taiwanese national security scene, I have been impressed with how tightly the Tsai administration has held information on this ‘domestic’ submarine project. The fewer leaks the better, not just for the submarines project, but a sign that systemic problems in the national security apparatus are being fixed. While there were rumors of South Korean, or maybe Japanese involvement, recent reports indicate that the US and UK are the primary actors – with the recent British parliamentarians visiting Taipei indicating that discussions were held re: the submarines most interesting. A kind of soft AUKUS+ emerging – nuclear submarines for Australia and maybe Japan, conventional submarines for Taiwan.

What remains missing, I think, is a discussion-debate inside Taiwan, and then between Taiwan and its democratic allies, on an overall strategy to deter and defeat the China threat. Are eight submarines enough? Should they have offensive cruise missile capabilities? Are the submarines designed to operate with CSIST’s mini/unmanned underwater vehicles? Are they designed with interoperability with the Japanese and American Navy?

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