As a historian, I appreciate this type of intellectual history of how an idea came to be. How did the US become obsessed with the domino theory in Southeast Asia? Why did the US think it was possible, or even desirable, to install American-style democracies in the Middle East after 9-11? And any student of Washington, DC would not be surprised by a town obsessed with fads and pack-mentality – down to annoying, glib catchphrases (thank Buddha the icky kimono thing seems to have finally faded ….) – envelope-pushing, paradigm-shifting, etc.
Is it fair to call the present-day US focus on the threat posed by the Chinese communists an “obsession”? One could go with a more moderate, fair word like “focus” can’t one. However the fact that Admiral Davidson gave the DC policymakers a year certain – even though his testimony was far more complicated and nuanced – makes this focus easier to propagate.
I don’t know if the Chinese communists will invade and attempt to annex Taiwan Republic in 2027. I don’t even think dictator Xi did. I do know watching the recent CSIS conference that people who should know more than I do, commanders and deputy commanders of branches of the American armed forces seem to speak of Chinese communist preparation less hypothetically and far more urgently than I can ever remember. And sure, I remember Iraq II and the failure of policymakers to understand reality on the ground. On the other hand, American intelligence on Russian intentions on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine seems near perfect.
Maybe the fact that this 2024 attention to the threat posed by communist China’s expansionism and imperialism feels like an “obsession” only in the historical context with how many decades Washington, DC and global democracies lulled themselves into a delusion – that somehow globalization and trade and cultural exchange will pacify the Chinese communists and make the world “flat”? Just as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a reminder to Western elites that certain fundamental features of human history have not been entirely erased by “progress,” dictator Xi’s aggressiveness is a reminder that while one can put fancy pants high rises and bullet trains all over China, but for the Chinese communists, their desire to subvert the US-led world order had never changed. And Davidson Window or not, I had always assumed no matter the Chinese communist leader, they have not attempted to annex Taiwan by force not because of “management” by DC think tank folks, but because they have not achieved such military capacity – once they do, you can sign a million more treaties and Beijing will militarily pursue Chinese imperialism against Taiwan and beyond.
While I have been impressed by the Biden liberal hawks and how they have expertly wielded tools of global statecraft – chip wars, interest rate wars, alliance building, preparing the armed forces – even the most recent foreign aid package still showed a lack of obsession/proper priority-urgency – 60 billion for Ukraine, 20 for Israel, 15 for the “Indo-Pacific,” – I am in full support of Ukraine, just merely pointing out that if we go by dollar amounts, this is hardly an obsession.
It is also confusing to view this phenomenon from Taipei’s perspective – on the one hand significant change in US policy regarding Taiwan – greater respect, more open, and normalizing political-diplomatic, and military interactions. President Biden should be given great credit – even though the Mandarins of DC policymaking circle had a massive cow about alleged “gaffes” – for repeatedly stating America’s commitment to defend Taiwan. On the other hand, the delays in the shipment of major weapons purchased by Taiwan from the US. It is not at all clear if the US has taken a firm and clear position on Taiwan’s critical submarine program. Most importantly, sooner or later, the US, Japan, and the Free World will have to obsess about another reality – if a Taiwan free from Chinese occupation is a matter of American and allies’ national interest, then a permanent military presence in and around Taiwan by the US and allies is the policy necessary to deter Chinese communist aggression. 9.5.2024
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