Tag Archives: geostrategery

12/06/2024 · 9:46 AM

The race to protect Taiwan Republic’s democratic sovereignty, “Taiwan Coast Guard ship docks in Honolulu Harbor,” Taiwan News. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国 and world history classrooms.

The race to protect Taiwan Republic’s democratic sovereignty, “Taiwan Coast Guard ship docks in Honolulu Harbor,” Taiwan News. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国 and world history classrooms. The most important facet of this news is dismantling the decades-long, artificially imposed “ambiguity” on the sovereign status of Taiwan. Next time this ought to be Coast Guard to Coast Guard, routinized, official visits. Barring an unwise push from the Chinese communists and its allies inside Taiwan Republic, the US, Japan, and the Free World will continue to walk up to the edge of fully recognizing Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty in what I have termed “all-but fully normalized.” When the Taiwanese Coast Guard vessel – what could be more official and “sovereign” than that – can publicly sail into an American harbor, then why shouldn’t American and Japanese Coast Guard vessels visit Taiwanese ports? And when that occurs, then why shouldn’t naval vessels, and air force aircraft follow? Rather than thinking of these changes as “message sending” or primarily symbolic, the important element is the ongoing global struggle to generate irreversible “facts on the ground” in the Indo-Pacific by both sides. The Chinese communists, their allies inside Taiwan and the West, are desperately trying to delegitimize Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty – by declaring the Taiwan Strait as they have with the South Sea as “domestic waters,” denying Taiwan has the right to self-defense, in academia and information warfare arguing that “cross-strait tensions” is a continuation of the latest Chinese Civil War which ended in 1949, etc. An important part of this Beijing-led “facts on the ground” warfare is the probing military and quasi-military missions – flying manned and unmanned military aircraft and naval vessels close to Taiwan – crossing the international boundaries, first around Quemoy and Matsu, probing missions near Tamsui, and so on. In this context, the US, Japan, and the Free World must respond by rapidly creating a different set of “facts on the ground” – unlike the Cold War era where tens of thousands of troops were stationed in Taiwan, what is required now are naval port visits, airport layovers, joint training missions, American and Japanese military advisors and liaisons, all concrete ways to demonstrate to the Chinese communists that in reality, the Free World does not require permission from the dictators in Beijing to conduct sovereign-to-sovereign activities with the duly elected national government of Taiwan. At this stage of Chinese imperialist belligerence, these are the only ways to convince dictator Xi that a military invasion of Taiwan will guarantee a military response from the US and the Free World.

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11/06/2024 · 9:49 AM

“US plans ‘hellscape’ of drones if China invades Taiwan. ‘Unmanned hellscape’ involves deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, surface vessels, aerial drones in Taiwan Strait,” Taiwan News. Geostrategery and military classrooms.

“US plans ‘hellscape’ of drones if China invades Taiwan. ‘Unmanned hellscape’ involves deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, surface vessels, aerial drones in Taiwan Strait,” Taiwan News. Geostrategery and military classrooms. Putting the word “hellscape” into the headline is marketing SEO genius. As I have noted recently, American admirals and generals and speaking of, and preparing for, a war against Chinese imperialism in ways that are less and less hypothetical. We know that admirals and generals and intelligence can be wrong, though as observers this is an important data point to notice. This frank conversation by the admiral in charge of the Indo-Pacific command is an example of this preparation. The fact that Taiwanese military leaders have finally started to prepare munitions, spare parts, and hardening bases, that is another example. If the Indo-Pacific command can finally drag the Chinese Taipei Ministry of National Defense generals out of their cult-like bayonet age and into the unmanned vehicles AI era, that alone would be a Nobel Prize-level accomplishment – not just to finally grudgingly purchase drones, but for these Chinese Taipei generals to think in concrete and creative ways on how best to deploy them.

The US and Taiwan Republic have been preparing for a Chinese invasion for decades. What is unusual about this news and recent examples from civilian and military leaders from America and the Free World is that the old “strategic ambiguity” (if you belong to the IR cult you need to chant that phrase three times while spraying Kissingerian holy water over your shoulder ….) rule is to do but to not speak of it. An important part of Taiwan’s normalization as a nation-state with democratic sovereignty is this kind of public discussion – as one would expect normal democratic allied nation do.

I agree with Rogin’s critique and will add this. A swarm of unmanned vehicles – hellscape or not – is a good beginning and ought to be in place now. I do not think anything will deter dictator Xi unless he is convinced his dictatorship, and his criminal family’s ill-gotten financial gains are on the line. Chinese communist manned and unmanned vehicles have been harassing democratic Taiwan and other East Asian neighbors for years. Ultimately these unmanned vehicles alone will not do the job, nor should they be the centerpiece – warships, submarines, aircraft carriers, innovative US Marines units, and so on – the US has this habit of trying to technology and print money to avoid boots on the ground, whereas all historical lessons point in the direction that wars are still wars, national borders and sovereignties and national interests require human soldiers and sailors to defend. And because the Chinese communists and its allies inside Taiwan and the West are waging an all-domain, fait accompli war – the sooner the US and allies put boots on the ground in Taiwan and surrounding areas-nations, the sooner it can leverage that fait accompli to remove the option of a military invasion off the table for dictator Xi and his criminal communist associates. 11.6.2024

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10/06/2024 · 9:32 AM

“US clarity key in Strait: ex-commander. SECURITY: The head of the US Indo-Pacific Command has said nothing is vague about helping Taiwan, while a researcher said ‘strategic ambiguity’ prevents conflict, “ Taipei Times. Geostrategery and world history classrooms.

“US clarity key in Strait: ex-commander. SECURITY: The head of the US Indo-Pacific Command has said nothing is vague about helping Taiwan, while a researcher said ‘strategic ambiguity’ prevents conflict, “ Taipei Times. Geostrategery and world history classrooms. My first reaction to Admiral Harris is “Well duh ….” But that’s not very scholarly I suppose. As a world historian what I am reminded of is how often seismic, institutional, complex changes in history take place – and how slowly the supposedly smartest most expertly people adjust to changing, different realities. Often stubbornly refusing to accept these changes. You add in the very human, self-serving tendency to rewrite and smooth out the historical narrative after the fact, and then we tend to forget that almost all major world events came as a massive surprise to leading experts and policymakers. The age of empires. The age of modern nation-states. The two world wars. The communist and fascist movements. 9-11. Globalization. De-Globalization ….

Strategic ambiguity, whether it was all that great to begin with, has become one of those not very useful, cult-like phrases (like porcupine defense) that policymakers and the mandarins of Western imperialist IR circles cannot let go of. Taiwan’s first president Lee Teng-hui articulated the earliest, in the mid-1990s, the end of strategic ambiguity’s applicability and usefulness. Unlike scholarly, word-obsessing, catch-phrase laden arguments the think tanks and policymakers often get stuck in, Lee was not as much a genius as he was pragmatically responding to rapidly changing realities in Taiwan (democratization) and in the then not quite yet named Indo-Pacific region – namely the rise of communist China as a menacing global belligerent, funded and aided by Western consumers. The world of 2024 has changed radically enough that it is self-serving now to forget how lonely Lee was – Western democracies, even after the Tiananmen Massacre – remained attached for decades to the naïve idea that consumerism and materialism would mellow the communists. An even deeper problem is this hubris that somehow these global autocrats could be “managed” with words, soothing, ambivalent, jargony words.

All of this makes President Biden and his liberal hawks worthy of high praise – while they are a part of this longstanding official and academic IR circle in the West, they are also sensibly changing longstanding US policies regarding the Indo-Pacific, communist China, the meaning of “status quo,” and without actually saying so outright, rendering strategic ambiguity meaningless. At least five times now President Biden has stated that the US would militarily defend democratic Taiwan – at least the first four times mandarins of DC policy-making circles had a massive self-indulgent tantrum, spoke as if they had more right to decide national security policies than a democratically elected president of the United States of America. It takes even the most powerful democratically elected leader of the world saying something five times to finally get through the thick skulls, and healthy egos, of these folks.

But the key idea is probably what Biden and his officials understand. These are not parlor games. These are not monks arguing over words in sutras. The most important lesson comes from Ukraine. Why did the West fail to convince dictator Putin that an invasion of democratic Ukraine was not in his dictatorship’s interest? Because for too many years the US and NATO have given Moscow mixed signals – “strategic ambiguity,” European edition. No matter how much IR professors and think tank scholars wish, I don’t think dictators respond to dialogue and treaties and so on. If you think about the careers of dictator Putin and dictator Xi (remember the same mandarins having a cow when Biden called both dictators? ….) – the kind of ruthless machination required to rise to the top of a mafia-like communist dictatorship, what are the motivations, what are they likely to respond to? My guess is clarity of words and following clear words with action – an invasion of Crimea meant a military response from the West, for example.

So, the main question for President Biden and leaders of the free world, based on lessons learned from our failures in Ukraine, is how to best convince the dictator of China that a war they initiate would guarantee the end of their dictatorship? Not chest-thumping, not military adventurism, in many cases, the options are not military – but creative ways for the US and the free world to recognize Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty while stating clearly that any attempt by China to start a war would end the Chinese communist dictatorship. Without that clarity, the lesson from Putin is that a dictator will always be tempted by war. 11.6.2024

© Taiwan in World History 台灣與世界歷史. This site grants open access for educational and not-for-profit use. Maps and illustrations are borrowed under educational and not-for-profit fair use. If you are the rights holder and prefer not to have your work shared, please email TaiwanWorldHistory (at) Gmail (dot) com and the content will be removed.

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01/06/2024 · 11:07 AM

“美空軍逾2400億JDAM套件增產購案由波音得標 US Air Force is ordering $7.5 billion in additional JDAM kits,” 上報 Up Media. Geostrategery and world history classrooms.

“美空軍逾2400億JDAM套件增產購案由波音得標 US Air Force is ordering $7.5 billion in additional JDAM kits,” 上報 Up Media. Geostrategery and world history classrooms. The mighty US Air Force is spending 7.5 billion on additional JDAM ‘smart-ish” bomb kits. Plain speaking may be considered too harsh — reality as best I can tell is this — during a China war there will be so many targets that even if all of the allies double or triple their national debts, there is not enough cash on this planet to pay for high-end munitions like cruise and ballistic missiles. Hence, a strategic and tactical set of logistical and financial plans is needed now on prioritizing targets – from high-intensity priority targets — command and control nodes, leadership bunkers, and ways to paralyze military and civilian logistical flows in China — versus middling and lesser but still require hitting targets (bridges, transportation hubs, power grids, fuel depots, munition storage, etc.) A student asked me recently how I am assessing where we are now, and I told her this: in 2022 when I started my Taiwan “long-stay” I thought the probability of a China war was low-ish. By 2024, if we go by what the American and allied militaries are doing — reinforcing military bases, stocking up on munitions, scoping out key areas of combat (Taiwan’s northeast/Japan’s southwest; Philippines’ northeast/Taiwan’s southeast) with actual forces, then I’d say the militaries, whatever intelligence and guesses they have, are preparing for a real war. Again, I think the most likely place where this thing starts is in the South Sea, and likely caused by an incompetent Chinese officer making a dreadful, stupid move to spark the whole thing. Thereafter, look, calling this the nucular age is not just for fun — the likelihood of a nucular exchange is not low.

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31/05/2024 · 8:43 AM

金融時報：立院職權修法 為中國對台滲透創造可乘之機 FT: Legislations passed by Taiwan Legislature Open Door for Chinese Communist Infiltration, CNA 中央社. Democracy, world history, and Taiwan Republic 台灣国 classrooms.

金融時報：立院職權修法 為中國對台滲透創造可乘之機 FT: Legislations passed by Taiwan Legislature Open Door for Chinese Communist Infiltration, CNA 中央社. Democracy, world history, and Taiwan Republic 台灣国 classrooms. It will take time to fully assess how much damage the thin majority the pro-communist China parties in Taiwan have done with their “reform” bills in the legislature. This Financial Times report – unless you believe the FT works on behalf of the ruling DPP – is a fair summary.

  1. The problem with the “status quo.” This horribly designed constitution Taiwan is forced to use was reluctantly created by the China KMT when it nominally ruled China. The China KMT, a Leninist authoritarian elder cousin to the Chinese Communist Party, never intended for the constitution to serve a liberal democracy. It resisted democracy in China by imposing a one-party dictatorship and dressing it up as a Period of Political Tutelage for decades. The problem with the fictional “status quo” insisted by the US, the Chinese, and the Chinese occupiers-colonialists in Taiwan, is that it forces a modern, dynamic, island democratic nation to use a constitution invented by backward, authoritarian, Chinese dictators from decades ago.
  2. All domain warfare against liberal democracies. None of this makes any sense without understanding the meaning of “all domain warfare” waged by the Chinese communists. Idealists from safer democracies in the West can pretend that there were better decades when the Chinese communists mellowed with trade and cultural exchanges and educational agreements – in reality, Beijing has never, ever stopped its all-domain warfare against all liberal democracies. An important tool in that communist toolbox – as Chairman Mao wisely taught, never fight a military war without being fully confident of victory – is to subvert and damage liberal democracies with democratic tools. Just as Putin’s Russia is seeking to defeat the US from within, the Chinese communists see pro-China parties in Taiwan as their best tools to defeat Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty from within.
  3. Echoes from Ukraine. How Putin’s neo-communists damaged Ukraine through electoral politics and information warfare before the full-on military invasion, and how Putin and Xi’s communist dictatorships have attempted to weaken American and other Western democracies with democratic principles – free speech, etc., are good examples to remember when studying what the China KMT and the China People’s Party are doing with their paper-thin majority in the Taiwan legislature.
  4. Saving liberal democracies from neo-authoritarians. A broader-deeper problem for those who support Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty must ponder is embedded within a twin threat. On the one hand, it is the US-imposed status quo that requires rethinking (on many, many levels – Chinese Communist Party arming itself to enact a form of Chinese imperialism against the region and the world that decades ago appeared less likely; coupled with a Taiwanese democracy that can no longer tolerate a poorly designed, anti-democratic, outdated constitution imposed on Taiwan by the China KMT invaders). It is also that all liberal democracies are facing a modernized, dynamic, sophisticated, and well-funded authoritarian world history moment – from communist China and Russia to authoritarian multi-billionaires and multinationals. How does a liberal democracy remain a democratic nation worth dying and killing for – while adapting extraordinary measures to combat extraordinary attacks? We see the US and Western Europe grappling with this dilemma – Taiwan and Ukraine are on the very cutting edge, the frontline of this new world war to save democracy.
  5. A final historical context, though this current wave of assault from the Chinese communists and its allies in the China KMT and China People’s Party is grave and severe. During the first DPP presidential administration of Chen Shui-bian the China KMT and allied pro-China parties not only held a vast majority in the legislature – it had the advantage of holding similar majorities over the military, judicial, and executive bureaucracies. Chen and the DPP, because of the China KMT dictatorship, had difficulty staffing the executive branch and had a vast knowledge-experience gap. The pro-China parties back then had the additional advantage of American ambivalence – US policymakers were more used to dealing with the authoritarian China KMT, and they still entertained the fantasy of double deterrence. President Tsai’s eight years were highly frustrating for enemies of Taiwanese democracy foreign and domestic partly because of her unusual personality – quiet confidence, counter-cultural lack of need to be at the center of attention, and stubbornness on core principles. What is usually lost to analysts of Taiwanese politics is that had Ma and other pro-China fascist-authoritarians not kicked President Lee out of the KMT, had Lee’s dream of turning the China KMT into a democratic Taiwan KMT – an LDP of Taiwan – President Tsai and her RoC Taiwan majority would have been a Taiwan KMT administration. An important reason for Tsai’s success is that she came up as a China KMT technocrat – she knows where the China KMT bodies are buried, she understands their dirty tricks, and she is comfortable with the China KMT invented national bureaucracy. While one ought to be alarmed by this latest assault upon Taiwan’s democracy and independence carried out by the China KMT and the China People’s Party, one should be hopeful that unlike the dangerous days of Lee’s and Chen’s second term when pro-China anti-democracy forces attempted nearly successful soft coups, Taiwanese democracy has become more resilient, that DPP executives have had more experience, and that US and the Free World now sees a clear line of demarcation between pro-democracy and anti-democracy forces inside Taiwan.

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30/05/2024 · 8:00 AM

海軍重啟「新一代飛彈巡防艦」 6000噸以上+AN/SPY-7主動相列雷達 Taiwanese Navy to pursue 6000 ton+ Next Generation AEGIS Frigates  – 自由時報 Liberty Times. Geostrategery and Taiwan Republic 台灣国 classrooms.

海軍重啟「新一代飛彈巡防艦」 6000噸以上+AN/SPY-7主動相列雷達 Taiwanese Navy to pursue 6000 ton+ Next Generation AEGIS Frigates  – 自由時報 Liberty Times. Geostrategery and Taiwan Republic 台灣国 classrooms. For an island democratic nation facing a gigantic authoritarian continental enemy, one would think Taiwan Republic’s navy would be a top priority. History and politics can distort such commonsensical approaches. Taiwan’s navy is a legacy brought to Taiwan by the China KMT when it lost the latest Chinese Civil War in 1949. The China KMT’s dictator Chiang Kai-shek was an army man, and the navy never had priority. Even during the democracy era, Taiwan has yet to decolonize its Chinese-imposed mentality as a continental civilization and embrace its maritime reality. This goes a long way in explaining how it is possible for an island nation, in 2024, to be the only nation in a neighborhood made super dangerous by the Chinese, to not have AEGIS-VLS in its naval forces. 

Other major contributors to this mess. Decades of wrong and dangerous US policy – even now there are policy mandarins in DC pretending that American policy regarding this region is a “double deterrence” – i.e., to prevent both sides of the Taiwan Strait from escalating tensions, as if both sides are equally dangerous. Ignoring the reality that since 1979 the US and the rest of the Free World have funneled trillions in cash and technological know-how to the Chinese communists, creating a vast military imbalance in the region that makes this equivalency dangerously mistaken. During the 1990s Taiwan sought submarines and AEGIS/VLS Arleigh Burke destroyers from the US – and the US (as it has done in Ukraine) managed its way ass-backward into this mess. 

Other problems have been domestic. The dark eight years of surrender monkey Ma certainly plays a role. More so decades of China KMT military dictatorship have created a vacuum of civilian national security leaders who are also pro-democracy. Taiwan’s military CSIST, for example, has claimed it can duplicate AEGIS/VLS technology for decades without delivering tangible results – lacking competent and powerful civilian arbitration, this impasse dragged on. For a smaller nation with limited research and development resources, should the CSIST insist on trying to develop so many items for all branches of the Taiwanese military? That is another national security policy worth debating among Taiwan’s democratically elected civilian leaders. 

And a final, decades-long problem stemming from the cult-like “strategic ambiguity” policy of the US. While some American think tankers complain about Taiwan not doing enough and not spending enough on its own defense, they almost always conveniently leave out the deep-seated problem created by American ambiguity. If Taiwan knows US and allied forces will cover long-range strategic strikes against China during the war, then it makes sense for DC to insist Taiwan focus its limited resources on their beloved porcupine defense. If America is ambivalent – then could any responsible Taiwanese leader pursue a porcupine policy (Stingers and Javelins), look at what’s happened to Ukraine (US and NATO policy thus far being – the aggressor Russia can pummel any part of Ukraine and commit war crimes; yet Ukraine cannot be allowed to pummel Russian territory)? My point is: in a world where so-called realists are actually looking at this world for real, then we can dispense with the illusion that the Chinese imperialists can be reasoned with. The only way to deter a Chinese invasion is to make it abundantly clear to the Chinese that starting a war will be the end of their dictatorship. With that clarity, then it would make sense for Taiwan to leave the high seas to larger regional and global powers, give up on the expensive AEGIS/VLS warships, and focus on smaller coastal crafts and submarines. These are policy choices reasonable people can argue and disagree over. They are impossible to debate without clarity from all parties – especially a global power as important as the United States. 

【小神盾艦】海軍啟動新一代飛彈巡防艦計劃　赴美評估採購AN/SPY-7相列雷達 

https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=1&SerialNo=202431

【小神盾艦】中科院研發不符作戰需求　迅聯系統與尖兵無人機出局

https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=1&SerialNo=202497

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14/05/2024 · 9:39 PM

Bibliography: “Exclusive: U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April,” Reuters. World history, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and geostrategery classrooms.

Bibliography: “Exclusive: U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April,” Reuters. World history, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and geostrategery classrooms. Is it “quiet” if it is purposely leaked to one of the largest news agencies on the planet? For a multi-day joint naval drill between the mighty US Seventh Fleet and the Taiwanese Navy that came as a result of a “chance meeting” in the vast Pacific Ocean, that officially did not occur, this Reuters exclusive is unusually detailed. These joint drills between the militaries of the US and Taiwan, particularly over the last decade as the US has finally understood the threat to the world order posed by the Chinese communists, are not unusual. Some of the Taiwanese Coast Guard missions into the South Pacific have been curious – if you collate US and Japanese Coast Guard missions. What’s unusual is the fact that this was intentionally leaked by the US to a reputable news agency.

Policy spirals, as I have noted, are complicated because they cross so many policy realms and sectors. The Chinese communists have ratcheted up their level of military belligerence towards all its Indo-Pacific neighbors – which means the US and allies must respond in kind, which in turn means Beijing will find additional ways to increase the pressure. On Taiwan Republic in particular – poorly trained Chinese communist combat pilots and naval captains have come perilously close to Taiwan – sooner or later the calculation in DC will be that it is better to have the US and democratic allies have a permanent presence in and around the Taiwan Strait and have a direct hand in managing this Chinese communist instigated crisis – than to leave the situation to a belligerent and poorly trained Chinese communist military and an inexperienced Taiwanese military. Thousands of American officers will be based in Taiwan but unlike the older model, most will not be permanently stationed but will rotate in and out of Taiwan for exercises and training and so on. These exercises are important because during the Chinese communist invasion forces from different nations will need to know if they can communicate/coordinate properly. This small naval drill is only the beginning.

While this intentional news leak may be a way to signal to the Chinese communists that the more aggressive they become, the more the US and allies will do, there are also other purposes as well. This could also be a signal that soon these joint drills with the Taiwanese military will become routine and public. An interesting phenomenon as a watcher of all things Indo-Pacific is in how often the narrative is framed with Beijing as the only protagonist – Chinese historical sensitivities, Chinese red lines, Chinese gray zone tactics, etc. Whereas all parties in the Indo-Pacific are protagonists. Interestingly this “chance meeting” is a Chinese parlor game the Chinese Communist Party and the China KMT have used in the past to engage in direct contact without admitting it. Meaning, while the Chinese communists have pushed their gray zone/all domain warfare – harassing the Taiwanese Coast Guards near Quemoy and Matsu, flying and sailing dangerously close to Taiwan, using collaborators with the Chinese communists within Taiwan to prosecute information warfare against Taiwanese democracy – more than once the US has demonstrated that it too has plenty of tools in its gray-zone/multidomain warfare toolbox. And frankly, if the US can focus and sustain its policies – that’s always the main worry – in the context of Taiwan, unlike Beijing, the US has had more decades with direct access to all sectors of Taiwanese society for which to combat and resist Chinese communist inroads. In terms of the military policy spirals, sooner rather than later American and democratic allies will have to ponder a permanent military presence in and around Taiwan. This “chance meeting” joint naval drill is the first of many early steps.

Exclusive: U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-taiwan-navies-quietly-held-pacific-drills-april-sources-say-2024-05-14/

Taiwan-US drills followed CUES: MND BASIC OPERATIONS: About half a dozen navy ships from both countries took part in the days-long exercise based on the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/05/15/2003817873

路透：美台海軍4月低調聯合軍演

https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1646036

Defense Ministry: Taiwan Navy drills with U.S. are routine encounter drills

https://en.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2011137

外媒：美國與台灣海軍4月「秘密」在太平洋舉行「不期而遇」演習

 https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/46858 

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12/05/2024 · 8:21 PM

The dangers of a geoeconomics policy spiral. “Biden Set to Hit China EVs, Strategic Sectors With Tariffs,” Markets Today. Geoeconomics and geostrategery classrooms.

The dangers of a policy spiral. “Biden Set to Hit China EVs, Strategic Sectors With Tariffs,” Markets Today. Geoeconomics and geostrategery classrooms. The policy spiral involving economic sanctions now has a US cutting off oil supply to the Empire of Japan on the eve of the Pacific War feel. Partisans will pick and choose ahistorical moments in the timeline to blame communist China and/or US. My sense is that years before the West realized, the Chinese communists knew their ability to make themselves profitable to the West was coming to an end — and so Beijing decided a de-globalized, disconnected, poorer China that’s on a permanent war footing is a safer bet for Xi’s dictatorship. Will the Chinese communists repeat the Empire of Japan’s major mistake — thinking that actively pursuing expansionist warfare would make them safer? That part I am not sure yet, although in the last two years, I have become more convinced that dictator Xi might just be stupid enough to repeat that mistake. Certainly the military set up in the Indo-Pacific, particularly from the South Sea into the Taiwan Strait and the East Sea are prone for an accident.

“China is likely to hit back against US tariffs on electric vehicles, Wedbush’s Dan Ives says,” Markets Insider

This is a companion article regarding geoeconomic policy spirals on the eve of Pearl Harbor. The main thing to understand about a policy spiral is that even when observers and policymakers can see them clearly, they are difficult to stop — because every policymaker gets short-term memory problems, because no one can agree on where the timeline ends and begins — most important, neither democratically elected nor dictatorial leaders want to be the one to “cave” and pay the domestic legitimacy price for being weak – requiring one party to back off is the only way to stop a policy spiral. You add in the complexities of the sectors involved — economic, politics, religious, military …. — add in multinational, domestic and foreign policies, and policy spirals are difficult to end without a massive catastrophe. I have always thought of the two world wars as major spasms within a huge, century-plus-long policy spiral — once one Western imperialist power decided foreign colonies, global empires, militarism, and mercantilism was the path, other Western nations plus Japan responded in kind. You would have thought the First World War was costly enough to cause a break in the policy spiral and encourage a deep rethink — it was not nearly enough. It required an even worse Second World War plus the nucular age to cause a break. It was not a utopian break — Cold War, local skirmishes, etc etc. But it was an unusually stable and prosperous few decades, 1945 to say 2000. the first break in this stability was the unwise decision by junior Bush to instigate a needless war in Iraq — that signaled the end of the 1945 world order. Everything after is far too complex to lay out in a fifteen-week seminar, much less a post. The main point being: the world is now knee deep in another dangerous policy spiral.

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09/05/2024 · 8:15 PM

How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Defense News. Taiwan Republic 台灣国 and geostrategery classrooms

How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Defense News. Taiwan Republic 台灣国 and geostrategery classrooms.

As a historian, I appreciate this type of intellectual history of how an idea came to be. How did the US become obsessed with the domino theory in Southeast Asia? Why did the US think it was possible, or even desirable, to install American-style democracies in the Middle East after 9-11? And any student of Washington, DC would not be surprised by a town obsessed with fads and pack-mentality – down to annoying, glib catchphrases (thank Buddha the icky kimono thing seems to have finally faded ….) – envelope-pushing, paradigm-shifting, etc.

Is it fair to call the present-day US focus on the threat posed by the Chinese communists an “obsession”? One could go with a more moderate, fair word like “focus” can’t one. However the fact that Admiral Davidson gave the DC policymakers a year certain – even though his testimony was far more complicated and nuanced – makes this focus easier to propagate.

I don’t know if the Chinese communists will invade and attempt to annex Taiwan Republic in 2027. I don’t even think dictator Xi did. I do know watching the recent CSIS conference that people who should know more than I do, commanders and deputy commanders of branches of the American armed forces seem to speak of Chinese communist preparation less hypothetically and far more urgently than I can ever remember. And sure, I remember Iraq II and the failure of policymakers to understand reality on the ground. On the other hand, American intelligence on Russian intentions on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine seems near perfect.

Maybe the fact that this 2024 attention to the threat posed by communist China’s expansionism and imperialism feels like an “obsession” only in the historical context with how many decades Washington, DC and global democracies lulled themselves into a delusion – that somehow globalization and trade and cultural exchange will pacify the Chinese communists and make the world “flat”? Just as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a reminder to Western elites that certain fundamental features of human history have not been entirely erased by “progress,” dictator Xi’s aggressiveness is a reminder that while one can put fancy pants high rises and bullet trains all over China, but for the Chinese communists, their desire to subvert the US-led world order had never changed. And Davidson Window or not, I had always assumed no matter the Chinese communist leader, they have not attempted to annex Taiwan by force not because of “management” by DC think tank folks, but because they have not achieved such military capacity – once they do, you can sign a million more treaties and Beijing will militarily pursue Chinese imperialism against Taiwan and beyond.

While I have been impressed by the Biden liberal hawks and how they have expertly wielded tools of global statecraft – chip wars, interest rate wars, alliance building, preparing the armed forces – even the most recent foreign aid package still showed a lack of obsession/proper priority-urgency – 60 billion for Ukraine, 20 for Israel, 15 for the “Indo-Pacific,” – I am in full support of Ukraine, just merely pointing out that if we go by dollar amounts, this is hardly an obsession.

It is also confusing to view this phenomenon from Taipei’s perspective – on the one hand significant change in US policy regarding Taiwan – greater respect, more open, and normalizing political-diplomatic, and military interactions. President Biden should be given great credit – even though the Mandarins of DC policymaking circle had a massive cow about alleged “gaffes” – for repeatedly stating America’s commitment to defend Taiwan. On the other hand, the delays in the shipment of major weapons purchased by Taiwan from the US. It is not at all clear if the US has taken a firm and clear position on Taiwan’s critical submarine program. Most importantly, sooner or later, the US, Japan, and the Free World will have to obsess about another reality – if a Taiwan free from Chinese occupation is a matter of American and allies’ national interest, then a permanent military presence in and around Taiwan by the US and allies is the policy necessary to deter Chinese communist aggression. 9.5.2024

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07/05/2024 · 8:21 PM

“Chinese Fighter Drops Flares in Front of Aussie Helo in ‘Unprofessional’ Action, Say Officials,” USNI News.  Geostrategery and military classrooms

“Chinese Fighter Drops Flares in Front of Aussie Helo in ‘Unprofessional’ Action, Say Officials,” USNI News.  Geostrategery and military classrooms. The likelihood that Chinese communists will purposefully plan and execute a war the same way dictator Putin did against Ukraine is low-ish. The likelihood that the Taiwan Strait is where the Chinese communist war begins is also low — even dictator Xi knows any such action will guarantee a third world war and the end of his communist dictatorship. My bet is on something like this incident in the South, East, Yellow, and Japan Seas — where the Chinese communists believe they can nudge and prod right up to the edge, even over the edge to move the goalpost, and somehow manage and contain the conflict. Unlike the armed forces of democratic nations led by the US, the Chinese communist military is not as well trained, not as professional, and not as disciplined. There is also the dictator’s conundrum – everyone working below dictator Xi is guessing what the Dear Leader wants, and everyone is trying to show maximum toughness and loyalty to the dictator. I have read, unconfirmed, reports that this is how that Chinese school bus-sized spy “balloon” invaded the heartland of the United States – not Xi approved, a lower-level commander trying to curry favor. How long before a Chinese communist combat pilot or naval captain takes things a step too far and kills someone? We have had many close calls — the Chinese communist pilot taking down a US Navy EP-3 near Hainan Island during the George W Bush administration being a good example. Back during the Bush days communist China was still too profitable for the Free World for that crisis to escalate — in 2024 China is a big financial deficit — a similar incident, poorly trained, trying to please the leadership, hot-dogging communist Chinese pilot or captain can easily cause a wider-broader war.

© Taiwan in World History 台灣與世界歷史. This site grants open access for educational and not-for-profit use. Maps and illustrations are borrowed under educational and not-for-profit fair use. If you are the rights holder and prefer not to have your work shared, please email TaiwanWorldHistory (at) Gmail (dot) com and the content will be removed.

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