Tag Archives: military

30/07/2024 · 9:40 AM

‘Porcupine’ without clarity on Taiwan’s statehood will not work: “Taiwan may yet become a porcupine,” The Strategist ASPI. Taiwan Republic 台灣国 and geostrategery classrooms.

‘Porcupine’ without clarity on Taiwan’s statehood will not work: “Taiwan may yet become a porcupine,” The Strategist ASPI. Taiwan Republic 台灣国 and geostrategery classrooms. This is an excellent article. Particularly noteworthy is the attention the author paid to the historical-political-cultural background within the autocratic China KMT-dominated national security apparatus which has frustrated efforts at reform. This is unusual for English-language IR analysts. The key paragraph is:

“Historical legacy worsens the military’s rigid top-down culture and bureaucratic resistance to change: it was once part of the then authoritarian Nationalist Party (KMT), which imposed dictatorship on Taiwan from 1949 to 1987. Previous defence ministers have often been retired generals or admirals, who have tended to allocate funds and choose programs to suit the desires of the service they came from, regardless of the needs of national defence.”

Analysts have aptly compared Taiwan’s democratization – broadly understood, in all realms of this emerging democratic nation – as comparable to pro-democracy and pro-Taiwan leaders trying to upgrade and fix an aircraft while it is in flight. Taiwan Republic’s first democratically elected president Dr. Lee Teng-Hui had to simultaneously combat reactionary, anti-democratic, and anti-Taiwan forces within the China KMT, erroneous and unhelpful policies from the US, and the Chinese communists while democratizing Taiwan. President Chen, the second democratically elected president, had to face a parliament dominated by the anti-democracy and anti-Taiwan China KMT, along with a US that maintained unhelpful policies. While Presidents Tsai and Lai face the US and the Free World that is finally realizing the threat to the world posed by the Chinese communists, the importance of domestic political stability and the threat of an invasion from the Chinese to annex Taiwan means the pace of reform and change within the Taiwan national security apparatus is limited.

Two elements are often missing in foreign analysis of Taiwan’s military reforms to prepare for the Chinese invasion are domestic consensus on Taiwan’s national identity, and the clarity by the US and democratic allies on Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty. Taiwan does not have a healthy democratic polity because not all of the major political parties recognize Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty. Anti-democracy and anti-Taiwan China KMT’s leaders in the parliament are adamant that China – Taiwanese democratic sovereignty’s greatest enemy – must be addressed as the “mainland”. If there is no national consensus on “us/we” versus “them/they” – then from whom should the Taiwanese military defend Taiwanese citizens? If you read enough China KMT and China KMT adjacent writings you might be convinced that unreliable American imperialists or Japanese pose a greater threat than the Chinese communists. President Lai’s challenge is to nudge the national security apparatus to democratize and indigenize itself so that the national identity confusion is resolved – only then can democratic forces within Taiwan have a productive debate over whether the “porcupine” strategy makes sense, and if so, in what form would it be most effective. In short, it is impossible to have such a national security debate if the major parties do not even agree on Taiwan’s nationhood.

The other element missing in many analyses is that the porcupine strategy without a clear commitment from the US and the Free World to Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty will not deter Chinese imperialists from military adventurism. Think of this as the global companion to Taiwan’s domestic national identity crisis. So long as the US and the Free World maintain the dated strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty, then Chinese imperialists in Beijing will imagine the opportunity where their militarism will succeed. So long as policymaking circles in DC and other democratic capitals hold on to the outdated and erroneous beliefs that democratic nations can dialogue and engage the Chinese communists into a peaceful compromise (how did this belief work out with dictator Putin and democratic Ukraine by the way? ….) – then the dictators of China will dream of a shock and awe, low cost, lighting military strike against democratic Taiwan where collaborators within Taiwan will assist in creating a de facto communist annexation of democratic Taiwan. Without clarity on Taiwan’s emerging national identity – premised on democratic sovereignty – domestically and abroad, Taiwan’s national security will not be enhanced, whether it be porcupine or hellscape. 30.7.2024

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20/07/2024 · 8:08 AM

“Japanese and Taiwanese coast guards hold first joint drill,”  The Japan Times. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and world history classrooms.

“Japanese and Taiwanese coast guards hold first joint drill,”  The Japan Times. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and world history classrooms. Multilateralism is difficult work. Most challenging for democracies, successful multilateralism does not translate into votes. There is a long history of American citizens voting out the geostrategery-foreign policy competent presidents – George Herbert Walker Bush is the most recent example. President Tsai’s eight years illustrate the clear and present threat to Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty posed by Chinese communists. Had democratic Taiwan had a more peaceful, civilized neighbor, foreign policy-focused President Tsai’s electoral fortunes might have been different. The collaboration between Japanese and Taiwanese Coast Guards – official and in public – is a good first step. This report should be linked with recent reports of joint Taiwanese and American naval drills, as well as the collaboration between the US and Taiwan Coast Guards – also in public and official. Can one’s official Coast Guard collaborate with Taiwan’s official Coast Guard without de facto recognizing the officialness of Taiwan’s democratically elected national government? And so when America, Japan, and the Free World ritually speak of their “unofficial” ties to Taiwan, well, action speaks louder than words.

These multilateral geostrategery cooperations in the Indo-Pacific are important because Chinese communists are using their paramilitary forces to extend Chinese imperialism in the South Sea, Taiwan Strait, and the East Sea. While this Chinese belligerence has been categorized by some as “gray-zone” tactics, I am not sure how ‘gray’ this gray zone is in that as with the Coast Guards of the Free World, the Chinese communist maritime paramilitary forces are essentially another branch of their military. Great credit to President Tsai and her liberal hawks for investing in the Taiwan Coast Guard – better, newer ships, multilateral cooperation, and as illustrated above, Taiwan Coast Guard ships capable of firing long-range anti-ship missiles during a Chinese invasion.

For the American-led democratic multilateralisms – the Coast Guards appear slightly less “escalatory” than the navies (although again, I am skeptical of this slow dance ….) The best news is that for the Coast Guards of Korea, Japan, the US, Taiwan Republic, Australia, and the Philippines to collaborate, it means ongoing strategic and operational dialogue exists between the national security officials of these democratic nations. If this is correct, then this is a great breakthrough and the Biden liberal hawks should be given credit. It also means that without future disruptions, the logical next step is collaboration between different branches of the military of these democratic nations in the Indo-Pacific region. This year these collaborations with Taiwan exist just on the edge of RIMPAC and other US-led Indo-Pacific military drills – soon Taiwan’s military should be integrated into these trainings.

This is why I have written previously: the greatest threat to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and the world has to do with the self-inflicted mess in Washington, DC. Erratic, authoritarian-friendly American isolationism – as it did in the 1930s – is a necessary precondition for another world war. Nor would those within the American center-left who still believe in “dialogue and engagement” with the Chinese communists lead to a better, more peaceful result. 20.7.2024

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16/07/2024 · 10:08 AM

Has Taiwan Republic ended Martial Law? “海鯤艦近距離觀察,” Tommy Chi 諸葛風雲的異想世界。 Decolonization and military classrooms.

Has Taiwan Republic ended Martial Law? “海鯤艦近距離觀察,” Tommy Chi 諸葛風雲的異想世界。 Decolonization and military classrooms. The brutal China KMT martial law/military colonization of Taiwan formally ended 37 years ago. However, because Taiwanese citizens have yet to purge the impact of decades of China KMT dictatorship/Chinese Taipei colonialism-cultural imperialism, it is difficult to find globally and historically contextualized discussion of Taiwanese politics, history, and national security in its mass media. Although there are hopeful signs that Taiwanese citizens, despite the self-censorship imposed by anti-democracy and anti-Taiwan China KMT adjacent forces among corporate media, are making progress. This YouTube channel’s analysis of the Taiwan submarine program is a good example.

Historians obsess over periodizations. It’s an occupational hazard. When I was a graduate student, my committee member and Soviet Russia specialist (for me to study the two major Leninist authoritarian political parties of modern Chinese history, I had to understand Soviet-Russian history ….) spent a semester teaching me how to write scholarly book reviews. One of the Soviet historians I read noted something that changed how I thought about history – she chronicled how much time it took for Tsarist institutions, bureaucracies, and procedures to last deep into the Soviet period – long after The Revolution had occurred. Her point is that histories are written as stories – with a beginning, middle, and end, with different distinct and separate chapters. Human affairs, on the other hand, are complicated. We layer and mix things through time. Because humans are not machines, we cannot “delete our hard drives,” purge our memories, or turn the switches to “off.” And yet when we narrate and explain human affairs, that’s precisely how we speak of changes – this is particularly so during the age of revolution, when there are ideological and emotional imperatives to pretend there are clean breaks.

Maybe even asking if the China KMT martial law has really “ended” is indicative of this fallacy. China KMT’s colonization of Taiwan and its brutal dictatorship, from 1945 to 1996, did not end cleanly with the formal end of martial law or the first democratic presidential election. This is because the China KMT colonizers-dictators had five decades to change the language, alter the scholarly ecosystem, and monopolize the media. The China KMT dictatorship had decades to infiltrate itself into every corner of Taiwan – business, agriculture, labor unions, civic groups, neighborhood associations. The most difficult-to-study part of colonization is cultural imperialism – erasing the diverse cultural-national histories that existed in Taiwan before the China KMT invaded – while replacing them with a two-dimensional, fictional, blood and soil Chinese nationalism formulated in the service of justifying the right of the China KMT to colonize Taiwan as a one-party dictatorship (legitimate heir of thousands of years of authentic Chinese culture and polity, etc.) Nearly four decades after the China KMT martial law and dictatorship formally ended, the democratization and de-colonization of the Taiwanese consciousness have yet to begin in earnest. It is an interesting process to observe – a citizenry traumatized and changed by the China KMT colonization, attempting to discuss public policies, while still trapped in many instances by the ideological-cosmological constructs imposed by the Chinese colonizers.

The Taiwan submarine program is an example of the progress made in four decades by Taiwan’s democratization –  the existence of lively and insightful discussions of Taiwan’s national security, such as this YouTube channel would not have been possible in the 1980s. The extent to which Taiwan’s democracy has much left to be done in terms of decolonization and modernization can also be found in how Taiwan has been limited in how it debates national security issues, such as with this submarine program.

The near-miraculous existence of this Taiwan-assembled submarine — Taiwan is incapable of independently manufacturing its own automobiles, maybe not even motorcycles (although I am not certain of this) — it is certainly not capable of independently manufacturing its own frigates or destroyers. A submarine is closer to a spacecraft in terms of difficulty. Another way to think about it is this Taiwan submarine gives us a good way to gauge how much behind-the-scenes aid came from Taiwan Republic’s Free World allies. This is also the first major Taiwanese arms program in my memory where for eight years no major news leak occurred — a great credit to President Tsai and the people she put in charge of this project. President Tsai is the first democratically elected president of Taiwan to have had any meaningful control over the China KMT-dominated national security bureaucracy. The Taiwan submarine is in harbor trial and will be in sea trial for the rest of this year. To understand the AUKUS+ Free World nature of this project, see the foreign ambassadors who attended the submarine’s unveiling – the US, Korea, Japan, and the UK. To understand how lethal a fleet of Taiwanese conventional submarines is against Chinese imperialism and militarism, study the attacks against the submarines coming from the Chinese communists and its allies inside Taiwan. 16.7.2024

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14/07/2024 · 9:39 AM

How to preserve peace and deter war? “Japanese think tank’s war game over Taiwan exposes weaknesses. JFSS calls for closer coordination between Taipei, Washington, and Tokyo to fight future China threat,” Taiwan News. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and world history classrooms.

How to preserve peace and deter war? “Japanese think tank’s war game over Taiwan exposes weaknesses. JFSS calls for closer coordination between Taipei, Washington, and Tokyo to fight future China threat,” Taiwan News. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and world history classrooms. A quasi-official Japanese think tank holding a wargame with quasi-official Taiwanese officials is a breakthrough. Professor Lai’s calls for clarity from Japan and the US, and for direct communication and coordination between Taiwan Republic, Japan, and the US are important for the preservation of peace in the Indo-Pacific.

There is an endless argument over how to preserve peace and deter war. Advocates for strategic ambiguity, for example, assert that with ambiguity, America has been able to “manage” the military balance in the Indo-Pacific, while “double deterring” both sides of the Taiwan Strait from “escalating tensions” and causing war. This view ignores the fact that one cannot find major political figures in democratic Taiwan advocating for war or radical, instability-causing policies – unless one defines democratic sovereignty as provocative. The war talks are coming from the Chinese communists and their allies inside Taiwan and the Free World. This begs a question: if the Chinese communists had the military capability in the 1990s to invade and annex Taiwan, with none of the conciliatory, engagement-oriented, strategically ambiguous policies unchanged on the American side, are we certain that the Chinese communists would not have started a war back then? When the US and NATO were still attempting to reset their relationships with Putin, did his efforts to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty subside? Did it modify his attempt to destroy Western democracies from within?

This leads to a strategic question: what do the Chinese communists want? There is a divide on this question regarding both the Chinese communists and Putin’s Russia. Some treat dictator Xi’s communist China and dictator Putin’s Russia as merely another great power, another normal nation in the dysfunctional family of nations. Based on that assumption, dictator Putin invaded Ukraine because NATO posed a threat, and Putin merely wanted to improve his nation’s security, and Xi has become increasingly belligerent because the Taiwanese dare to hold free and fair democratic presidential elections and chart their own ways. If only Ukraine and Taiwan would negotiate with Moscow and Beijing they argue – but to negotiate what? Well, negotiate away their own democratic sovereignty, and then there will be peace in our time.

What if the main source of friction is a disagreement over what the world order ought to be? An American-led postwar world order versus a return to a fragmented, regional powers-dominated sphere of influence order – a Social Darwinian, might makes right, a multipolar world full of regional imperialisms where the larger powers always have the right to militarily subdue their unfortunate smaller neighbors?

For the current phase of the Indo-Pacific crisis instigated by the Chinese communists, clarity from the US and Japan would go a long way to deter Chinese imperialism and militarism. Had dictator Putin known that the US and NATO would not allow his dictatorship to survive if he invaded Ukraine he would have made a different calculation. What we do know is that strategic ambiguity – Ukraine edition, coupled with attempts at dialogue, and even threats of economic sanctions, failed to deter Putin.

Ambiguity from the Free World aside, Putin also received erroneous information from his national security leaders, and the anti-democracy and anti-Ukraine forces inside Ukraine. This is where Professor Lai’s advice to Japan and the US is most important. Much of what dictator Xi and the Chinese communists are hearing about Taiwan is coming from the anti-Taiwan and anti-democratic China KMT and its allies – that the Taiwanese military is brittle, that Taiwanese soldiers will surrender at the first sign of trouble, that DPP politicians will flee, that America is a paper tiger and will not put up a fight. Sound familiar? How did dictator Putin come to believe that an elite paratrooper unit landing at the Kyiv Airport would lead to a quick, painless victory to subdue democratic Ukraine? In modern Chinese history, the China KMT is always corrupt and inept, whereas the Chinese communists are evil but competent – a competency that is borne of cold-blooded rationality. This is why clarity in words (a Chinese-instigated war will end the communist dictatorship) and actions (official and public dialogue between national security leaders of Taiwan and the Free World and regular rotations of American and allied forces into Taiwan) from the US, Japan, and the Free World regarding the price Beijing will pay if they choose a war of annexation against Taiwan are the key to preserve peace. 14.7.2024

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12/07/2024 · 10:27 AM

“[Taiwan] MND [Ministry of National Defense] outlines arms stockpiling policy. SCOPES, CALIBERS: The defense minister said the military has plans to develop a 6.8mm rifle, and is issuing optical sights, with all rifle-armed troops to get a scope,” Taipei Times. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and world history classrooms.

“[Taiwan] MND [Ministry of National Defense] outlines arms stockpiling policy. SCOPES, CALIBERS: The defense minister said the military has plans to develop a 6.8mm rifle, and is issuing optical sights, with all rifle-armed troops to get a scope,” Taipei Times. Geostrategery, Taiwan Republic 台灣国, and world history classrooms. The greatest threats to world peace and Taiwan’s national security are instability within domestic American politics, the rise of extremism and populism, and the revival of American isolationism.

This article should be read along with the reports on US Senate and House 2025 NDAA, articles linked below.

The questions asked by the anti-Taiwan and anti-democracy China KMT and People’s Party legislators are not due to national security – how can one care about “national” security if they do not consider Taiwan to be a “nation”? Instead, they are intended to assist the Chinese communists’ information warfare fomenting fear among Taiwanese citizens and creating a false sense that Taiwan strengthening its military will “provoke” a Chinese invasion. This is no different than some American and European academics and journalists assuming that Ukranian and Taiwanese democracies are by definition “provocative” and “escalatory” for the Russians and the Chinese dictators.

What is significant about this new civilian Minister of National Defense and his answers are the connections with the US House and Senate’s 2025 NDAA and the mandate for the Pentagon to establish a contingency stockpile to prepare for the growing China Threat. Another way to think about it is: that for decades Taiwanese leaders have focused on weapons/platforms and neglected logistics – dispersal, hardening of bases, electricity, water supply, communications, etc. The fact that this focus on logistics and training changed under President Tsai signaled Taiwanese civilian leaders’ seriousness – also indicating that President Tsai made significant inroads into the national security area – clearing out reactionary China KMT forces. President Tsai is the first democratically elected president in Taiwan to have made significant inroads into the national security area.

These four articles are also a good example of how closely the pro-Taiwan and pro-democracy, democratically elected leaders of Taiwan are working with the legislative and executive branches of the United States. Particularly noteworthy is the bipartisan American push for broader, more creative ways of increasing Taiwan’s national security – ammunition stockpiles are for the most acute of China Threats – integrating Taiwan into the US-led global military supply chains, focusing on geoeconomic ties in high technology, machinery, unmanned vehicles, aviation and space, agriculture, fisheries – along with educational and cultural ties, are just as important for safeguarding Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty.

Assuming relative political stability within the US and Taiwan, there are further steps needed beyond the munition stockpiles. Whether munition stockpiles are stored in and/or near Taiwan – units of American, Japanese, and allied forces must enter Taiwan and collaborate with Taiwanese military and civilian units. Only then will these forward-positioned stockpiles have any meaning. Taiwanese and American military planners, through these regular visits, can test and evaluate logistical issues on the ground. For example, during a Chinese invasion and attempted blockade, what are the harbors and airports that Taiwanese and allied forces must secure? Do the US, Japan, and allies have appropriate ships, unloading and loading vehicles, transport airplanes and helicopters? What are the key land routes and storage facilities for additional munitions to enter Taiwan and be safely dispersed and efficiently dispersed and used? What are the contingencies and backup plans? It has been decades since the US and Japanese militaries have had a presence in Taiwan – their return will not only signal resolve towards the Chinese communists but only by regularly sending military units into Taiwan can the US and Japanese military planners test and modify complex multinational military planning. 12.7.2024

US Senate bill requires arms stockpile for Taiwan. Bill also seeks US-Taiwan common operating picture, industrial base cooperation https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5900262

US bill calls for arms stockpile to aid Taiwan. BUILDING TIES: A US House version of an NDAA bill would require that the Pentagon report on efforts to bolster defense industry cooperation with Taiwan https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/16/2003819412

US House passes military aid for Taiwan. DETERRENCE: Along with US$500 million in military aid and up to US$2 billion in loans and loan guarantees, the bill would allocate US$400 million to countering PRC influence https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/30/2003820091
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11/07/2024 · 9:35 AM

Bibliography: “[Taiwanese] Ministry plans 7 improved attack subs. PROPOSAL: The submarines, the first of which would enter into production in 2026, would fire Harpoon missiles and feature better combat systems than the ‘Hai Kun’,” Taipei Times. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, geostrategery, and world history classrooms.

Bibliography: “[Taiwanese] Ministry plans 7 improved attack subs. PROPOSAL: The submarines, the first of which would enter into production in 2026, would fire Harpoon missiles and feature better combat systems than the ‘Hai Kun’,” Taipei Times. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, geostrategery, and world history classrooms. These eight Taiwanese submarines are critical to Taiwan Republic’s ability to deter and defeat a Chinese invasion to annex Taiwan. If anything, the planned Taiwanese submarine fleet should be larger than the planned 8+2. These Taiwan-assembled submarines’ capabilities and their successful production serve Taiwan’s national security interest and therefore are important for vital American and Japanese national interests. The success of this submarine program is no less critical to the Free World than the AUKUS submarines.

There are important historical and contemporary contexts regarding these Taiwan-produced submarines. First, because of decades of contradictory and self-defeating US policy, Taiwan has not been able to obtain a substantial fleet of submarines from the 1950s until the 2020s – and at great cost in time and money to Taiwanese taxpayers. As with other major weapons that, because of misguided and failed US policies, forced Taiwan into domestic production, such as the AIDC’s IDF jet fighters, one may reasonably question whether it makes any sense for a nation the size of Taiwan to pursue domestic production of submarines. If the US is serious about facing the China Threat, this self-defeating pattern must be altered. Second, it is not clear what the Chinese Taipei leadership of the Ministry of National Defense (still Army-dominated and defeatist in outlook) – or even the Navy’s position is on these submarines. Third, a recent spate of news within the China KMT-dominated Taiwanese news media indicates complex information warfare against these submarines – with the first wave of attack concerning quality-reliability, then in line with the pro-China anti-democracy force’s tactics regarding vaccines and eggs, and green energy, evidence-free assertions of graft and unusually high cost. The most recent line of information warfare attacks appears to be suggestions that the submarines will prevent other domestic arms projects from proceeding.

Even though the 2024 Taiwan parliament has an anti-democracy and pro-China majority, which will cause the submarine project some delays, it is important to compare 2024 with 2000. Both had a pro-democracy and pro-Taiwan president, both with an anti-democracy anti-Taiwan parliament. President Chen of 2000 failed to push through the submarine program – DPP was far less experienced, and the US was still too ambivalent regarding the China Threat. In 2024 the global environment and political landscape in Taiwan Republic have changed. The success of this Taiwanese submarine program will require clarity and focus from policymakers from the US and the Free World. AUKUS may serve as a model – for these submarines to be assembled in Taiwan, but with technological expertise coordinated by the US, Japan, and NATO allies – ensuring that the Taiwanese submarines and their sailors will be able to communicate and coordinate with the allied forces led by the Indo-Pacific command. The US, Japan, Australia, and European democracies have great influence among Taiwanese citizens, even within the anti-democracy and pro-China China KMT and China People’s Party. It is important that the US and Japan not sit passively while the Chinese communists conduct their influence campaign against the Taiwan submarine program. 11.7.2024

「海鯤號」潛艦擬9月海試、明年第一季打操雷 後續艦料件陸續備妥 https://def.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/4729008

後續7艘國造潛艦 加配潛射魚叉飛彈 https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1655271

潛艦後續量產案敲定3+2+2 國防部提出2840億元概算分15年編列 https://def.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/4727929

顧立雄︰海鯤號先通過海試 後7艘預算才動支 https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1655272

Tommy Chi諸葛風雲的異想世界 https://www.youtube.com/@sunponyboy/featured

Armed with a heavyweight torpedo made to ‘break ships in half,’ Taiwan’s first homemade submarine represents a new threat to China’s navy https://ca.news.yahoo.com/armed-heavyweight-torpedo-made-break-100001579.html

Taiwan to build 7 new submarines with Harpoon missiles in $284 billion project https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/taiwan-to-build-7-new-submarines-with-harpoon-missiles-in-284-billion-project

Budget for Taiwan’s next 7 submarines to wait until Narwhal tests completed. First indigenous submarine still undergoing harbor tests https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5899080

Across the Indo-Pacific, militaries scramble to put more submarines in the water. Several US allies in the region have launched new subs this year, and others are making plans to buy them, reflecting a long-standing focus on undersea warfare that is only intensifying. https://breakingdefense.com/2024/06/across-the-indo-pacific-militaries-scramble-to-put-more-submarines-in-the-water/

【潛艦國造】賴清德點頭！7艘海鯤級後續艦成本暴增逾2840億　為期15年三階段開工建造 https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=1&SerialNo=205570

【潛艦國造】海鯤號9月進行SAT海上測試　美軍購驗測操雷設備年底抵台 https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=1&SerialNo=205655

【震海案延後】潛艦量產排擠效應！「小神盾艦」計劃闖關失利　未排進明年度國防預算 https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=1&SerialNo=205588

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04/07/2024 · 8:27 AM

Strategic clarity required for ‘Hellscape/Porcupine’ to work: “‘Hellscape’ Swarms Could Be a Cost-Effective Taiwan Defense, Says Report,” USNI News. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, geostrategery, and world history classrooms.

Strategic clarity required for ‘Hellscape/Porcupine’ to work: “‘Hellscape’ Swarms Could Be a Cost-Effective Taiwan Defense, Says Report,” USNI News. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, geostrategery, and world history classrooms. This is an excellent report from CNAS with an informative discussion session available on The YouTubes (see link below). Because of the lost eight years under anti-democracy and anti-Taiwan Ma, and the leadership deficiencies within the reactionary China KMT-led Taiwan national security establishment, Taiwan Republic is decades behind in its military unmanned vehicle developments. Therefore, this is a timely push for Taiwan’s security against the China Threat.

For CNAS’s thoughtful suggestions and the broader Indo-Pacific Command’s “Hellscape” unmanned vehicle vision to be adopted by Taiwan, an honest and accurate memory of America’s decades-long erratic and contradictory policies towards Taiwan, coupled with a commitment to strategic clarity are necessary.

On accurate and honest historical memory – too many American policymakers have either amnesia or self-serving rationalizations (imperialist hubris), on the decades of restrictive American policies towards arms Taiwan may import, coupled with ambivalence towards Taiwan’s national survival in the case of a Chinese invasion. Ideally, Taiwan ought to focus on homeland defense and making the Taiwan Strait a “hellscape” for the Chinese invasion force – though this focus would only make sense, and would be easier for democratically elected civilian leaders in Taiwan to push these changes through the national security establishment, if Taiwan has concrete assurances from the US and democratic allies that this close range, homeland defense “hellscape” is part of a broader tactical and strategic plan – with the US, Japan, and other democratic allies committed to neutralizing medium to long range Chinese targets.

Strategic clarity from the US addresses another problem – over the last four decades, erratic and self-contradictory policies from the US regarding Taiwan’s national security have wasted time and money for Taiwanese taxpayers – by forcing Taiwan into purchasing substandard weapons (Olivard Hazard Perry frigates instead of AEGIS destroyers is a good example; Sparrow air-to-air missiles instead of AMRAAMs is another ….) from the US in the name of “managing” parity across the strait, or by the US forcing Taiwan to invest in manufacturing their own weapons that the US refuses to sell. In many cases, such as the Taiwanese jet fighter IDFs – Taiwan does not have the technological know-how, nor the economies of scale, to make such an investment rational – for all of the American think tankers complaining in 2024 about Taiwan not spending enough on defense, and/or purchasing too many big-ticket weapons, what would have happened had the US sold F-16s to Taiwan in the early 1980s, and Taiwan had been able to divert half of the cost of running around in circles developing its own inferior IDFs into unmanned aerial vehicles? But imperialist hubris means never having to say you are sorry, or even that you remember, right?

There are still American imperialist academics and policymakers who stubbornly hold onto strategic ambiguity, arguing that US policy is based on “double deterrence” – i.e., deterring a Chinese communist invasion while also deterring Taiwanese formal independence. One should challenge anyone who, in 2024, still repeating this antiquated formulation to name a mainstream pro-Taiwan and pro-democracy leader in Taiwan Republic over the last two decades who is either advocating formal independence, or pro-war? To the best of my knowledge, the only idiots left on planet Earth who are seriously advocating immediate formal independence and/or war are the Chinese, their anti-democracy allies inside Taiwan, and American academics and think tankers who still believe the US “giving” democratic Taiwan to the Chinese would lead to peace in our time.

Strategic clarity and commitment from the US and allies allow Taiwan’s democratically elected civilian leaders to plan rationally on how best to reallocate limited national security resources – for example, deciding which unmanned vehicles are worthwhile to domestically develop; and which are best license-produced in cooperation with US manufacturers; and which are best imported from abroad. From jet fighters to missiles, from naval vessels to armored vehicles, Taiwan’s military inventory is a museum of the decades of misguided and self-defeating American policy towards communist China and the Indo-Pacific. This is the opportunity to fundamentally discard Strategic Ambiguity in favor of clarity in the defense of global democracies, hence, core American national interest. 4.7.2024

“Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLl5xgPl7VA

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27/06/2024 · 6:46 AM

President Tsai Ing-wen and this emerging Taiwanese national identity, part three, the dead-end of the “blood and soil” Chinese nationalism. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, national identity, and world history classrooms.

President Tsai Ing-wen and this emerging Taiwanese national identity, part three, the dead-end of the “blood and soil” Chinese nationalism. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, national identity, and world history classrooms. This week Taiwan’s army presented prototypes of an indigenous 105mm wheeled armor vehicle. Taiwanese netizens rapidly made a size comparison of the proposed wheeled 105 mm vehicle with the M-1A2T MBTs coming to Taiwan. Further improvements will be made, though it has been interesting to follow the discussion-debate on its viability in the Taiwanese civil space.

During the democratic era, Taiwan Republic has had four presidents — Lee, Chen, Tsai, and Lai. Decades apart, Chen and Lai share the fate of facing a pro-China pro-autocracy majority in the parliament, but for foreign and domestic reasons Lai is in a far stronger position. I have been writing about different elements of why this is the case, as a way of analyzing the formation of modern Taiwanese national identity. An interesting indicator is in the realm of national security. For historical-political reasons, during Chen’s eight years in the 2000s the national security area, public and private, was monopolized by the so-called “mainlanders,” and a particular subset – veterans of China KMT dictatorship’s military, who spent decades forcing the subjugated Taiwanese to be anticommunists, until the democracy era, when they decided Taiwan independence is far worse than Chinese communism. What’s left of that group is the embodiment of a “blood and soil” type of reductivist, violent, anti-democratic Chinese nationalism.

It is not so much that with time these Chinese Taipei occupiers mellowed — in fact, many have become more radicalized — it is that their numbers have noticeably been reduced because Tsai’s eight years opened the door to those associated with the population that fled to Taiwan between 1945-1949 who maintain a sentimental attachment to “RoC” but also are pro-democracy to join with the pro-democracy and pro-not surrendering to the Chinese communists Taiwanese mainstream. Many of the online and YouTube civilian Taiwan military analysts I follow may well have voted for the reactionary and anti-democracy Ma twice, and may still vote for China KMT candidates on the legislative and local levels. But on presidential-national identity-democratic sovereignty issues, they have become a part of Tsai’s emerging domestic consensus on “RoC” Taiwan and its democratic sovereignty. Taiwan, as is the case with the US and Europe, is a good case study of why blood and soil type nationalisms may achieve short-term political gains but result in long-term national dead-ends — while Tsai’s liberal-democratic nationalism – the idea that being Taiwanese citizens is defined by adherence to a set of democratic values and principles and not based on blood and lineage — is such an important principle for Lai and allies domestic and foreign to promote and to protect. 27.6.2024

[Illustration from 新‧二七部隊 New 27 Brigade at https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=122154187856155786&set=a.122105799836155786]

[Analysis of the armored vehicle at Tommy Chi諸葛風雲的異想世界https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tlp34pK3png]

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24/06/2024 · 8:41 AM

“Han Kuang drills to switch focus. ADAPTING: The annual live-fire exercises would include night-time drills and test how units would perform after losing contact with central command,” Taipei Times. Geostrategery and Taiwan Republic 台灣国 classrooms.

“Han Kuang drills to switch focus. ADAPTING: The annual live-fire exercises would include night-time drills and test how units would perform after losing contact with central command,” Taipei Times. Geostrategery and Taiwan Republic 台灣国 classrooms. With any complicated, difficult reforms, one has to start somewhere. Given the many decades of failed reforms with the Chinese Taipei national security establishment, one can understand the immediate reactions of pessimism – however, there is a difference between cautious pessimism and cynicism-nihilism. President Lai’s civilian Minister of National Defense, hopefully with powerful assistance from the Taiwanese national security reformers and American and Japanese advisers, is taking important steps. His will not be an easy task. The Chinese Taipei national security establishment cannot win a war, but they are experts at sabotaging democratic reforms.

The historical context to remember. Just as Taiwanese democracy has had to temporarily adapt to unwieldy, poorly designed, anti-democratic China KMT institutions, Taiwan’s Chinese Taipei national security establishment is an even lesser evolved legacy from the Chiang Kai-shek crime family and dictatorship. A military designed by a paranoid, incompetent dictator who saw no difference between his “family,” his “political party,” and his “dictatorship” – the holy trinity of China KMT. The top line’s key point is – that it was not a military designed to fight independently and to protect the nation or its democratic sovereignty – this was a national security apparatus created with only one task – to protect the dictator and his dictatorship. 

One might argue well fine but both Chiang dictators are long dead, Taiwan has been a democracy since 1996 – this is why I have long noted that for a variety of historical and political reasons, the Taiwan national security establishment has been the least impacted by Taiwan’s modernization and democratization. The danger inherent in this gap can be seen with high-level Chinese Taipei generals and intelligence officers not so much with national identity confusions, but are expressly loyal to the Chinese communists. The additional danger is an important lesson from Ukraine – a military that is insulated from how its democratic nation works will not be able to fight effectively – Taiwan’s obsolete, authoritarian military establishment and its foreign, colonialist mentality prevent it from fully understanding Taiwanese dynamism – where its IT experts are, whether its globally significant online gaming community may contribute to its modern warfare capacity.

Even something as simple as propaganda – go randomly select a Chinese Taipei Ministry of National Defense propaganda film, note the soundtrack, and ask yourself – is this the kind of music popular in Taiwan, particularly for its recruitment age young citizens? Does it have the kind of online, wry humor Taiwanese citizens enjoy?

While the Chinese Taipei national security establishment is designed to protect the dictator and not so much to fight wars, they are experts at sabotaging reforms. I expect the usual suspects with their collaborators in the Chinese Taipei-dominated military press to find ways to defeat these necessary improvements to the Taiwanese military. The question for the ruling DPP, civil society, and Taiwan’s democratic allies will be, how serious are we this time, and if we are serious, then are we prepared for the information warfare against military reforms that have already started?

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23/06/2024 · 9:17 AM

“US officials say UN Resolution 2758 twisted: sources. UNDER THE RADAR: Two US deputy assistant state secretaries visited Taiwan and met with foreign diplomats to discuss how to boost the nation’s international participation,” Taipei Times. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, geostrategery, and world history classrooms.

“US officials say UN Resolution 2758 twisted: sources. UNDER THE RADAR: Two US deputy assistant state secretaries visited Taiwan and met with foreign diplomats to discuss how to boost the nation’s international participation,” Taipei Times. Taiwan Republic 台灣国, geostrategery, and world history classrooms. Even though arguing over the textual meaning of UN resolutions is something that my students roll their eyes over, this is as important as weapons and troops because it goes to the heart of the American and Free world’s position on Taiwan Republic’s democratic sovereignty. The combat jets and naval vessels are necessary to carry out geostrategery policies – but clarity on the international, sovereign boundaries between the People’s Republic of China and the “Republic of China” Taiwan is an important step in fixing the decades-long American mistake made in the name of strategic ambiguity. Not the least in clarifying whether or not the Free World has a legitimate reason to come to democratic Taiwan’s aid if the Chinese communists choose to invade – is it a Chinese civil war (no!), or is it, like Russia invading Ukraine, one nation invading another (yes!!)? This is why the China KMT has vehemently opposed one citizen one vote direction presidential elections in Taiwan.

Just as Taiwanese presidents Dr. Tsai and Dr. Lai must make domestic and diplomatic concessions – weighing relative tranquility with needed reforms – and hence the current mainstream position inside Taiwan regarding the meaning of democratic sovereignty is that the PRC and the RoCTaiwan are not subservient to one another but Taiwan as of now will hold onto the tragic-comedic formal name “RoC” – global powers must balance between changing facts and policy inertia. Although in the realm of recognizing China as a threat to global democracies, shoring up Taiwan’s de facto independence, and redefining the “status quo” as near-permanent, things have been moving at light speed.

My educated guess is this: with the latest trip to China made by the reactionary, fascist, anti-democratic former China KMT Chair Ma, and with the “mainstream” China KMT leadership loudly denying Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty, the only remaining usefulness of the China KMT to the Chinese communists is for the China KMT to recognize that the People’s Republic of China as the only legitimate representative of One China, and to concede that Taiwan must be annexed and ruled underneath this PRC-One China. If DC, Tokyo, London, and other liberal democratic capitals see this trend clearly, then they know that once the China KMT crosses that line into official surrender, the Free World must fully recognize Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty as a response. 23.6.2024

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